Where will the next $10 trillion of GDP come from?
World GDP over the past 12 months was about $65 trillion. Over the next 28 months, it will grow $10 trillion bigger (in
today’s dollars), according to the IMF’s projections. But where will
that next $10 trillion be added? That depends on the size of a
country’s economy, its growth rate and the appreciation of its real
exchange rate. Focusing on any one of those things, to the exclusion of
the others, can be a misleading guide to a market's potential. For
example, China’s economy in 2013 will still be smaller than America’s.
But because it is growing so fast, it will add $1.65 trillion compared
to America’s $1.43 trillion. Japan—a slow-growing economy—will
contribute $410 billion, less than Russia ($698 billion) or Brazil
($461 billion). But because Japan is so big, it will still contribute
more than India ($392 billion).